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中国就业缺口与城市化进程  

2010-01-05 09:39:12|  分类: 外语学习沙龙 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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While everyone is glad to put 2009 behind them, 2010 could be an even tougher economic year for China. To climb out of the global contraction, Beijing has engineered a property bubble characterized by oversupply in commercial real estate and unsustainable price gains for residential property. The consequences of this will bite in the new year.

To soak up and justify this excess, China's leaders are trying to stoke demand by accelerating the already
epic urbanization trend, reducing constraints on migration and urban registration. The leadership is betting on the connection between accelerated urbanization and consumption, too. In 2008, 43% of China's population was considered urban, versus an average of 79% for Latin America, 73% in the euro area and 82% in the U.S: China still has a long way to go. By front-loading this urban growth, China will bolster prices for upstream raw materials like iron ore and aluminum in the near term and keep construction companies busy. But many people are concerned that China's urban factories already are overbrimming with overcapacity in almost all sectors, and boosting urban migration will just aggravate overproduction, which will spill into world markets.

If China is already suffering overcapacity in everything, then indeed swelling the urban population would just exacerbate problems. But it isn't. In fact, there are huge swaths of economic activity and employment simply missing from the Chinese marketplace. Policies that address the reasons for this can create tens of millions of new jobs in traditional and new sectors in the years ahead, adding to domestic consumption and diverting the country from a collision course with its trading partners.

Consider three sectors: healthcare, manufacturing white collar, and education.

Healthcare: China has 1.6 doctors per thousand people; the U.S. has more than 23. Not that China wants to replicate everything about U.S. healthcare, but given rising pathology and
mortality due to aging baby boomers, changes in diet, lifestyle, longevity and environmental contamination, filling this shortfall is critical. Reaching the U.S. ratio would mean adding almost 30 million doctors, not to mention multiples of the current low numbers of supporting staff -- nurses, palliative-care specialists, hospital administrators and hundreds of other subspecialties comprising the modern healthcare sector.

Manufacturing White Collar: For all its storied manufacturing-sector prowess, China's goods makers skimp on R&D, quality control, brand management, financial planning, environmental-health safety and almost every other white-collar position that turns a manufactured commodity into a branded product and generates intangible value for the firm: value that makes up a third or more of assets in most Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development firms.
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